#1: 首先声明我没有long or short position of 李曼兄弟投行。People said (1766 reads) 作者: ceo/cfo, 时间: 2008-9-12 周五, 03:59 — 作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Lehman is too big to let it fall. However, this time around it could be different, IMHO. Mr. Paulson just took over both Fs. He did it not without criticism. Quite a few people have raised voice on this moral hazard rescue. He used JPmorgan Chase to take over Bear Stearns, but this time he may have hard time to find any white knight for Lehman, and Mr Paulson may be willing to show some teeth to let Lehman fail?? I am not sure. But one thing I am almost certain that the government WILL NOT directly bail out a private investment bank. I believe in the past several weeks Mr. Paulson's dept. has been investigating who will get hurt and by how much? in case Lehman falls....
The problem is maybe tody Lehman still has enough cash to sail itself through the tough waters, but its trading partners and the large depositors are becoming more nervous. It is Bear history repeats. When an investment banking is bankrupt, all the assets and accounts will be frozen and the court will decide which accounts and how much to be released and it takes time. Therefore, the big guys tent to flee for the covers, which will cause even more trouble for Lehman.
