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 [前瞻]抛售高潮未到 * 油价新高 * 道指轻笑 |
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gigilang
头衔: 海归中校
声望: 博导
性别: 
加入时间: 2008/05/01
文章: 1377
来自: usa
海归分: 43104
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作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
週四美股開盤後一路狂跌，道瓊斯工業平均指數跌至52周新低，同時能源價格創出新高。原油價格盤中一度站上每桶140美元，創出140.05美元的歷史記錄，收盤小幅回落至139.64美元，創收盤新高。原油價格的飆升主要有兩個原因，一是利比亞威脅要降低產量，二是石油輸出國組織(OPEC)主席表示，由於美元不斷貶值，今夏原油可能漲到170美元。
可以看到，多空雙方正在3月低點附近的關鍵支撐處展開爭奪。事實上，週四的走勢證實了數天前提出的“重新測試3月低點”的判斷，“目前最應該關注的位置是3月低點，大約1275點。
總結：毋庸贅言，週四的暴跌行情超級負面。那麼這是否就是我們一直等待的底部呢？答案是否定的。關於最後的震倉行情，我們預計標普可能會以天量底切3月低點。簡而言之，儘管週四的行情有超短期恐慌性拋盤的特點，但是不要將其同熊市中最後的投降式拋售相混淆。
Key DOW Levels for 6/30
UP None
DN None
Continued Weakness..
Dow extends losses, remains below critical support.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow remains within a very bearish downtrend in the 60 Minute Chart. Since the index dropped so heavily today, we could see a minor reaction rally or the development of a consolidation tomorrow..."
The Dow opened the day with another round of selling this morning, as the index dropped 195 points to begin the session. The index then bounced from lows and eventually closed the day with a loss of 107 points.
The Dow continues to hold well below critical support at 11,635, which was furiously crossed during yesterday major sell-off. The fact that the Dow took out this highly significant level with such force and decisiveness is indicative of much more overall selling ahead. Look for more selling pressure so long as the index remains beneath 11,635.
Looking at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts over the last two weeks shows the index has dropped steadily since topping out at 13,135 in mid-May. The fact that the index has dropped so steadily without much of a pull-back indicates that we could see a near-term bounce from lows soon. Watch for strength above 11,400 for signs of such a bounce.
Short Term Dow
The Dow closed the day within a clear triangle range in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this pattern for early direction next Monday morning. Watch 11,400 up, and 11,335 down.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will hold off on trades at this time.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off early in the day, followed by late-day strength into the Close. Each index will likely begin to build out a range at lows ahead of the next key move.
Summary
The Dow ended the day modestly off the session's lows and may begin to build out a consolidation at lows next week. Further overall weakness is likely, but watch for a near-term bounce soon.
作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由gigilang于2008-6-29 周日, 11:17修改，总共修改了2次
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 [前瞻]抛售高潮未到 * 油价新高 * 道指轻笑 -- gigilang - (2394 Byte) 2008-6-28 周六, 22:30 (1432 reads)
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