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healthaegis
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作者：healthaegis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
The Bush Administration and China: Five Reasons Why The Emperor Has No Clothes
By William J. Holstein
They must really be quaking with fear in Beijing’s halls of power. In apparent response to news that China’s annual trade surplus with the United States has topped $200 billion, the office of U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman said today it is creating a new chief counsel for China trade enforcement. “China should be held accountable for its actions and required to live up to its responsibilities, including opening markets and enforcing intellectual property rights,” Portman said.
But there is zero chance that this step, or anything else that the administration is doing, is going to be effective. Here are five reasons why the U.S. emperor has no clothes:
1. China’s foreign exchange reserves have mushroomed to nearly $820 billion, second only to Japan’s roughly $850 billion stockpile. The fact that China is holding the vast majority of these reserves in dollar instruments and is re-investing heavily in U.S. government debt means the Bushies have absolutely no leverage in Beijing. Who are they kidding?
2. China’s markets are already far more open than Japan’s. Talk to the CEOs of General Motors, Cisco, Lucent, IBM and many other major U.S. companies and they’re excited by prospects on the mainland. GM’s Rick Wagoner says that China is already his second largest market. IBM has just sold its PC division to Lenovo. Why is the Bush Administration beating the anti-China drum when America’s CEOs are not? CEOs know that as much as 60 percent of China’s exports to the U.S. come from foreign-invested entities, whether from the U.S., Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan or South Korea.
3. Yes, it’s true that Chinese state-owned enterprises and other entities are knocking off the intellectual property of Western companies. But threatening to take them to the World Trade Organization is like putting a band-aid on cancer sores. What American CEOs have learned is that they must maintain a presence on the ground in China to protect their IP and use the Chinese courts or other methods to counter-attack pirates. It’s up to individual companies, in other words, not some court in Geneva.
4. Another element of the Bush campaign on China is that Beijing manipulates the value of its currency. Of course, it is. But would forcing a 5 or 10 percent upward revaluation really shrink China’s surplus? Not really. The heart of China’s competitiveness at the moment is that it possesses endless supplies of cheap, flexible labor, and it’s still only in the early to middle stages of converting itself from a Communist system to a quasi-capitalistic system. This is one of history’s greatest economic transformations. Pretending that a currency shift will fix the “problem” is ludicrous.
5. Any genuine effort to redress America’s economic imbalances with the world has to include Japan. It’s Toyota that’s kicking GM and Ford in the backside. The Chinese aren’t even players yet. It’s the same way in many sectors: Toshiba, for example, is paying more than $5 billion for the nuclear power assets of Westinghouse. Canon is winning in the world of digital cameras. It’s ridiculous for the Bush camp to single out only China. At least for now, Japan is a more powerful competitor.
In sum, the only logical explanation for Washington’s latest fulminations is that the Bush Administration is trying to placate domestic political interests with superficial press maneuvers. As long as this administration is completely dependent on imported capital and as long as its top ranks are completely bereft of officials with genuine Chinese and Japanese expertise, its hands are tied. And everyone knows it.
William J. Holstein, editor in chief of Chief Executive magazine, started covering China in 1979 from Hong Kong for United Press International and served from 1981-1982 as Beijing bureau chief. He also is author of the book, “The Japanese Power Game: What it Means to America.” (1990.)
作者：healthaegis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]The Bush Administration and China: Five Reasons Why The -- healthaegis - (4067 Byte) 2006-4-03 周一, 12:02 (1096 reads)
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